Loterías y apuestas

Reduced 'Quinielas': maximise your chances

Do you know how La Quiniela is played using the reduced method? We explain the details in this video .

Small football pools make it possible to optimise the probability/price ratio when multiple picks are used in one or more games. Here we provide you with a small manual for your understanding and use.

How do multiple bets generally work?

If we assign a multiple value to a game in a Football Pool, we are playing multiple bets. For example, imagine that there is a football pool with no more than 3 games, where, in one of the games, we assign a multiple value, in this case a double 1-X:

In reality, this football pool is two different single bets:

Where every block corresponds to a single bet. If we would have placed a triple, i.e., a 1, X and 2 in game 3, we would have played 3 bets and we would have 3 blocks. This would be the result:

Imagine that our bet has been a triple in game 3 and that the final result of all the games was 1:

• In the bet for block 1, we would have had 3 correct picks
• In the bet for block 2, we would have had 2 correct picks
• In the bet for block 3, we would have had 2 correct picks

How do multiple picks work in the reduced mode?

Now let's look at how one of the authorised reduced modes, the first reduced mode, works. The first reduced mode is a multiple pick into which we incorporate 4 triples. These 4 triples carried out result in 81 single bets. The reduction consists of methodically selecting and playing 9 of the total 81 bets.

In a multiple pick, if we mark 4 triples, we will be playing 3x3x3x3 = 81 bets. The cost of this football pool would be equal to 81 x 0,75 = €60,75.

However, if we mark those 4 triples but tell the system that we want to play them in the reduced mode, will only play 9 of the possible 81 bets. The cost of this football pool will be 9 x €0,75 = €6,75.



However:

Why only 9 of the 81? The system selects the 9 bets that guarantee the maximum number of possible correct picks. If all the games coincide with our pick, the 9 selected bets guarantee us the following:

• 11.11% of having 1 bet with 14 correct picks.
• 100% of having 1 bet with 13 correct picks.

Which are these 9 bets? The bets of the first reduction are carried out as follows:

This means that there are 72 possible combinations or bets that we DO NOT play. For example, we do not play the combination with a 2 in the four games and therefore, if the final results of the games were all 2, would not have gotten 4 correct picks. However, block 3 would have allowed us to have 3 correct picks.

Where is the advantage then? It is not a question of advantage or disadvantage, it is a question of mathematical probability. 4 triples are 81 bets and they cost 60,75 euros. If they are played in direct multiple mode, without reducing, and 14 correct picks are obtained, there is a 100% probability of having played the bet that contains the winning combination. A total of 100% of the bets have been played, and each and every one of them have been paid. However, through the reduced mode, 9 out of the 81 bets are chosen, which are the ones that guarantee the greatest number of winning combinations of 14 and 13, provided that all the results were picked correctly, and at a much lower cost. In the case of the 4 reduced triples, the price is €6,75 instead of €60,75. As a result, for 14 correct picks, there is only an 11.11% chance that one of the 9 bets will contain the 14, but a 100% chance that they contain 13 of them.

Why these bets and not others? The authorised reductions and the groups of valid picks are governed by the Resolution of 6 July 2009 of Loterías y Apuestas del Estado, which approves the standards that govern the betting competitions of Sports Betting starting from the first session of the 2009-2010 season. These regulations were published on 23 July 2009 and can be found, in their entirety, here.

How many types of reductions are there? These regulations include the six types of authorised reductions and the complete carrying out of the bets that are played in each of them. Here is a small summary:

• Reduction 1: 4 triples, 9 bets, €6,75
• Reduction 2: 7 doubles, 16 bets, €12
• Reduction 3: 3 doubles + 3 triples, 24 bets, €18
• Reduction 4: 2 triples + 6 doubles, 64 bets, €48
• Reduction 5: 8 triples, 81 bets, €60,75
• Reduction 6: 11 doubles, 132 bets, €99

In any case, La Quinela's game interface at loteriasyapuestas.es will inform you of the available reductions and will assist you in the process of filling in your ticket.

What probabilities of correct picks do each of the official reductions give me?

According to this table, in the first reduced mode, we have an 11.11% chance of having a bet of 14 correct picks, provided all of the results coincide with the pick. If this happens, we will also have 0 of 13, 0 of 12, 8 of 11 and 0 of 10. However, if we do not have one of 14, we will have a 100% possibility of getting 1 of 13, 3 of 12, 3 of 11 and 2 of 10 right.

How is it played, where does one select this mode?

• If you play at a point-of-sale, ask the person there for the reduced mode forms. They will answer any questions you may have. These are special tickets that are good for any session and look like this:
  

  

• If you play here at loteriasyapuestas.es, you must select the corresponding option when you are making the picks, as you can see in the folllowing image:
  

  

  
  

  The COMBINACIONES (COMBINATIONS) column is automatic and reflects the marked doubles and triples. The authorised reductions are mentioned to the right. In the column “PART. EN SISTEMA" ("GAMES IN SYSTEM") you must mark which of the 14 games are going to be played in the reduced mode. In other words, of all the games for which a mutiple pick has been made, we must indicate which will be incorporated into the reduction system. For example: imagine that we put a triple in the Portugal-Malta, the Estonia-Belgium, the Turkey-Armenia and the France-Austria. We would mark the boxes 2, 7, 8 and 11 because this is the place that these games occupy on the session's programme.

Can I play mixed games with reduced picks and other multiple combinations without reducing? Yes you can. The only authorised reductions are those which are found in the previously-mentioned resolution. However, imagine that we want to play the first reduction with 4 triples but we also want to add one more double that is not reduced. In this case:

• 9 bets that we play with the 4 triples in the reduced system = €6,75
• Plus a double, 9 x 2 = 18 bets = €13,5
• If it were another triple, 9 x 3 = 27 bets = €20,25

We do not mark this double or triple that we have added as one of the games to be reduced in the column “GAMES IN SYSTEM”

Is this method commonly used by football pool players? Approximately 20% of the bets that are made each week are carried out with this method, which means that it is a widely-used feature.